Kamala Harris’ tricky path to the Democratic nomination

Greetings, I’m Nick Vinocur and I’ll be your host for this edition of Brussels Playbook. Since I started writing Playbook on Sundays, I’ve been on duty for Emmanuel Macron’s shock announcement of a snap election, two jaw-dropping rounds of the French election, an assassination attempt on Donald Trump and now Joe Biden announcing he’s not running for reelection. I’m not superstitious, but forgive me for being wary of what may come next … Life on Mars? France agreeing on a government?
Let’s dive in.
BIDEN DROPS OUT … BACKS KAMALA HARRIS: The fact that we knew this could happen somehow didn’t lessen the shock — U.S. President Joe Biden has officially dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, throwing the Democratic nomination open just a few weeks before the party’s national convention.
Standing ovation: After weeks of criticism following Biden’s disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump, the incumbent’s withdrawal triggered an outpouring of cheers for Biden’s legacy from Democratic supporters.
Removing the issue: Democrats latched on to the fact that, by dropping out, Biden removes his age and cognitive state from the public discussion and puts the spotlight back on Trump’s limitations and legal troubles.
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What happens now: Harris has received Biden’s endorsement — and those of other influential figures in the party, including the Clintons — but that doesn’t necessarily mean she’ll be the candidate. She has to convince Biden’s more than 3,800 delegates to switch their votes over to her ticket before the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19. (Useful explainers from POLITICO, the Associated Press, and Washington Post on what happens next.) In a tweet, Harris said she intends to “earn and win” this nomination.
Not everyone is thrilled about Harris: Former Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi favors a “competitive convention,” per The New York Times, while ex-President Barack Obama conspicuously did not endorse Harris in the statement he released Sunday night, saying only that the Dems would pick an “outstanding nominee.”
What that means: There are plenty of Harris doubters inside the Democratic Party, where memories of her poor performance during the 2020 primary are hard to forget. Any other candidate that can gather 300 delegates ahead of a virtual DNC “roll call” in August could theoretically challenge Harris for the nomination. So it’s hers to lose … but not a slam dunk.
One name to beat them all: Michelle Obama. The former First Lady performs better against Trump in polls than any other Democratic candidate — but her office said earlier this year she wouldn’t run for president.
Trump’s take: In comments to CNN on Sunday, the Republican candidate and former president said he thought Harris would be easier to defeat than Biden.
The new season of Veep: Harris will also have to unveil her pick for vice president. The choice is seen as crucial for the former prosecutor’s chances given the uncertainty about whether she can beat Trump. Several polls conducted before Sunday’s announcement suggest she’d do slightly better than Biden. It’s far from clear that voters would respond to Harris more favorably in the full glare of a presidential campaign in which she was at the top of the ticket than they have in the past.
Mirror, mirror: Potential Harris running mates include California Governor Gavin Newsom (who endorsed Harris overnight), Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (also backing Harris). The last one could come in handy given that his state is shaping up to be a key battleground in November. Read more on the possible VP nominees here.
NOW READ: This deep dive on why Biden finally decided to quit after weeks of insisting he was staying in the race … And POLITICO’s Global Editor-in-Chief John F. Harris on how Biden, alone and abandoned, learned that friends are more dangerous than enemies.
THE VIEW FROM EUROPE: Amid widespread angst over Biden’s fading chances, the emergence of isolationist Senator JD Vance as Trump’s running mate, and fears about a sudden break in the transatlantic relationship, the reaction from many in Europe was also a big exhale. 
Salute: In a post on X, Polish President Donald Tusk hailed a decision to withdraw which he said was “probably the most difficult in your life.” German conservative leader Friedrich Merz — possibly the country’s next chancellor — said Biden’s move deserved the “utmost respect.” German Greens MEP Sergey Lagodinsky saluted what he called the “right decision,” while Metin Hakverdi, an SPD lawmaker in the Bundestag, went so far as to preemptively endorse a Harris-Shapiro ticket. (Round-up of European reactions here.)
Unknown quantity: But the EU’s defense and security establishment might want to hear more from Harris on NATO and the Ukraine war. While Harris has visited Europe a handful of times, including recently for the Munich Security Conference in February, Biden and his national security adviser Jake Sullivan are more commonly linked to questions of global security.
ICYMI: Here’s Harris’ speech in Munich in February, where she delivered a resounding endorsement of the United States’ global leadership role. 
Some more clues: My U.S. colleagues have dug through Harris’ record for indications of her likely foreign policy priorities if she becomes president. Expect mostly a continuation of Biden’s approach — robust support for Ukraine and Israel, continued efforts to build alliances in Asia and the Pacific — but Harris could be more sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians than Biden has been.
Bottom line: Biden’s decision to drop out from the race is cheering to Europeans who were increasingly resigned to a second Trump presidency. But Harris’s path to the White House is by no means a straight line — and more surprises could be in store. May cooler heads prevail.
POLISH FOREIGN MINISTER WARNS AGAINST COMPLACENCY: Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, in comments exclusive to Playbook, has warned that Europe needs to get to work dispelling the narrative that the war in Ukraine and defense of the bloc’s security are a burden on the United States.
In his words: “[The] US is and will remain Europe’s strategic partner regardless of who is in the White House next year. And regardless of who wins, we have to take more responsibility for Europe’s defence and security,” he said in a written statement.
Splainin’ to do: “In my opinion, Europe has no other choice but [to] get ready for a change. America will keep an eye close on Asia. It is our job to explain to our US partners that as long as we are feeling Russia’s threat, we won’t be able to engage fully there.”
The long version: Ahead of a gathering of EU foreign ministers Monday in Brussels, Sikorski’s ministry is circulating a non-paper on transatlantic relations to drive home his point on complacency. Here are the key points from Sikorski’s five-page paper, seen by POLITICO:
— It’s the economy, stupid: Europe needs to address widespread American perceptions, right or wrong, that their country is being taken advantage of by trading partners. Europe’s surplus in goods trade with the U.S. has significantly increased over the past decade. Elites need to “learn how to talk” with the public about the advantages of a strong EU-U.S. trade relationship.
— Russia is just getting started: The Kremlin’s state media and online operations are ramping up their efforts ahead of the U.S. presidential race. Both sides need to hit back against misinformation, the paper argues — particularly the idea that Ukraine imposes an excessive burden on the U.S. taxpayer.
— Warning lights: “If Moscow can encourage isolationist tendencies among Americans, persuade them the United States has no real interests worth fighting for in Europe, and motivate them to oppose military assistance to Ukraine,” the paper warns, “then the Kremlin could win not only a military war in Ukraine but a hybrid one all across the West.”
— Big-up the EU, not nations: Americans tend to have positive perceptions of individual EU countries, but are less favorable when it comes to the union as a whole. “It is imperative that we collectively take swift and robust action to strengthen the transatlantic relations through strategic communication about the EU in the US,” the paper argues.
— Back to school: Pointing out differences in perceptions of Russia between younger and older Americans, the paper also urges policymakers to fine-tune their arguments to a younger audience unfamiliar with the Soviet Union.
— Start speaking as one: Europe can’t afford mixed messages on the transatlantic relationship. The European External Action Service, the EU delegation in Washington, the European Commission and all EU countries need to “boost strategic communication” with the U.S. to demonstrate that Europe is still its most important and reliable partner.
THE HUNGARY FIGHT: EU ministers meeting today will have their hands full with Hungary’s unconventional presidency and the big question on everyone’s mind: Should member states boycott a foreign affairs summit due to take place on Aug. 28-29 — the so-called Gymnich — my colleague Jacopo Barigazzi writes in to report.
Flip-flop: Top EU envoy Josep Borrell originally floated the possibility of organizing a formal meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels that would overlap with the Gymnich — effectively a boycott of the Budapest event. But after receiving feedback from member states, the EU diplomatic body announced in a message to member states, seen by POLITICO, that they would attend the Gymnich.
Adding to the confusion, a senior EU official told journalists  Friday that no decision had yet been taken. Borrell “has not yet decided what to do at the end of August … it’s my understanding that he wants to listen to ministers on Monday and see the different views before taking a decision,” the official said.
Don’t mess with it: One diplomat contacted by Playbook said that 10 countries told Borrell that they “don’t want to mess with” Hungary’s Gymnich and that this was unlikely to change during Monday’s meeting.
Another quipped: “It’s like Schrödinger’s Gymnich: It’s dead and alive at the same time,” another diplomat said, referring to the famous thought experiment on quantum theory. Many “have enough of this back and forth” from Borrell, the diplomat complained. 
One more thing: Ministers will again discuss the €6.6 billion package in military aid to Ukraine through the European Peace Facility — a package that Hungary blocked, causing strong tensions at a previous meeting in May.  No one expects Budapest to move but “we continue to apply pressure on Hungary” said a senior EU diplomat. 
SEVEN EU COUNTRIES PUSH FOR SYRIA DISCUSSION: Ahead of today’s foreign affairs council, the foreign ministers of Austria, Italy, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Greece, Croatia and Cyprus are calling on the EU’s foreign policy chief to discuss and review the EU’s strategy for Syria, according to my colleague Barbara Moens.
Win-win: One of the options floated in a non-paper seen by POLITICO is having a European Syria envoy to increase the EU’s diplomatic capacity in the region. The review could help improve the humanitarian aid to Syria, but also potentially help to return migrants to certain regions of the country.
“After 13 years of war, we have to admit that our Syria policy has not aged well,” said Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg. “Bitter as it is, with the help of Iran and Russia, the Assad regime remains firmly in the saddle. The Syrian opposition is fragmented or in exile altogether. The European Union cannot turn a blind eye to this reality any longer.”
MELONI’S MASK IS FALLING: The rise of Euroskepticism in Europe, exemplified by Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has evolved from calls for EU exit to a strategy of changing the bloc from within. With echoes of Viktor Orbán, this shift poses a new challenge to European integration. In an opinion piece for POLITICO, Nathalie Tocci, the director of the Italian Istituto Affari Internazionali, explains why this could potentially reshape the future of the EU.
HUNGARY’S LOOMING FUEL CRISIS: Hungary is on the brink of a fuel crisis as Ukraine restricts Russian oil supplies, threatening sky-high prices and electricity shortages. Kyiv’s sanctions on Lukoil’s oil transit through its territory aim to weaken the Kremlin but pose dire consequences for Hungary, which is heavily reliant on Russian imports but now racing to secure alternative energy sources. Victor Jack and Gabriel Gavin have more.
THREE GREAT READS TO START YOUR WEEK:
— This burger could kill the EU
— Zombies, wannabes, soldiers: Which MEP tribe do you belong to?
— Making the Olympics cheap again
**Join us for POLITICO Competitive Europe Week on October 1-3 in Brussels. Engage with key policymakers and industry experts as they discuss Europe’s economic security, industrial policy, and the transformative power of AI in shaping the continent’s future competitiveness. Apply for your pass now!**
— Foreign Affairs Council; chaired by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell … Arrivals and doorsteps at 8 a.m. Watch.
— Jobs Commissioner Nicolas Schmit receives Nadia Calviño, president of the European Investment Bank Group.
— Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides is in Nicosia, Cyprus and meets Annita Demetriou, speaker of the Cyprus House of Representatives and president of the Democratic Rally party.
— Crisis Management Commissioner Janez Lenarčič receives Jamaica’s Foreign Minister Kamina Johnson Smith.
— Commissioner for International Partnerships Jutta Urpilainen is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; participates in the G20 Development Ministers Meeting.
— Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra receives the Netherlands’ Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp.
WEATHER: High of 24C, cloudy.
TRAVEL UPDATE — ROAD WORKS: From today until August 31, the Reyers tunnel will be closed, meaning it’s no longer possible to enter the city from the east via E40.
DIGITAL WALKING TOUR: The City of Brussels has started a project to help locals and newcomers (re)discover the capital on foot while promoting local businesses. The app-based “Emile” service promises “new flavors, wellness vibes, eco-friendly shopping” and other authentic local experiences on curated self-guided tours.
BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Nora Mebarek and Harald Vilimsky; Mayor of Aalter Pieter De Crem; former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison; the College of Europe’s former rector Jörg Monar; former President of the Maine-et-Loire Department Council Christian Gillet; Andrew Holness, PM of Jamaica; the U.K.’s Prince George.
THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
**A message from DIGITALEUROPE: Europe has what it takes to be a digital powerhouse by 2030, but our recent study shows we are lagging our global competitors on 7 out of 8 critical technologies like AI and advanced semiconductors. We are also home to only 10% of the world’s 100 most profitable tech companies. President Von Der Leyen’s next Commission and Member States have a golden opportunity to turn the tide and put competitiveness first. Our plan: more investments, a unified digital rulebook, simplified reporting and stronger partnerships with likeminded countries. Read more.**
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